{
\def\sym#1{\ifmmode^{#1}\else\(^{#1}\)\fi}
\begin{tabular}{l*{10}{c}}
\toprule
                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{National\\unemployment\\(percent)}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{National\\unemployment\\(categorical)}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{County\\unemployment\\(percent)}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Household\\financial\\prospects}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Earnings\\growth:\\Mean}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Earnings\\growth:\\Uncertainty}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Personal\\unemployment\\(percent)}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{\\Inflation:\\mean}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{\\Inflation:\\Uncertainty}}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{\shortstack{Firm\\profits\\(categorical)}}\\\cmidrule(lr){2-2}\cmidrule(lr){3-3}\cmidrule(lr){4-4}\cmidrule(lr){5-5}\cmidrule(lr){6-6}\cmidrule(lr){7-7}\cmidrule(lr){8-8}\cmidrule(lr){9-9}\cmidrule(lr){10-10}\cmidrule(lr){11-11}
                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(3)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(4)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(5)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(6)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(7)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(8)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(9)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(10)}\\
\midrule
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
{\bf Panel A: OLS}&         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
Posterior: Recession&0.528\sym{***}&0.014\sym{***}&0.508\sym{***}&-0.011\sym{***}&-0.010\sym{**}&0.010\sym{***}&0.112\sym{***}&0.013\sym{***}&0.013\sym{***}&-0.009\sym{***}\\
                &  (0.033)&  (0.001)&  (0.035)&  (0.002)&  (0.005)&  (0.004)&  (0.018)&  (0.004)&  (0.004)&  (0.002)\\
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
\hline          &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
{\bf Panel B: IV}&         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
Posterior: Recession&0.895\sym{***}&0.030\sym{***}&0.536\sym{***}&-0.012\sym{**}&   -0.013&    0.002&0.113\sym{*}&    0.014&    0.006&-0.013\sym{**}\\
                &  (0.131)&  (0.006)&  (0.118)&  (0.006)&  (0.020)&  (0.013)&  (0.066)&  (0.018)&  (0.015)&  (0.005)\\
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
Observations    &     1124&     1124&     1124&     1124&     1118&     1118&     1123&     1121&     1121&     1124\\
                &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         &         \\
Mean dep. var.  &    32.09&     0.01&    29.55&    -0.01&     2.64&     1.79&     6.61&     2.60&     2.74&    -0.01\\
SD dep. var.    &    24.18&     1.00&    23.20&     1.00&     3.42&     2.41&    11.47&     3.05&     2.71&     1.00\\
First stage F-stat&    75.16&    75.16&    75.16&    75.16&    74.56&    74.56&    75.25&    75.71&    75.71&    75.16\\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
}
